2010 Predictions? In July?

I just read a post on ERE by the esteemed Lou Adler titled. “Sourcing Trends and Predictions 2010” and as I read down the list of 10 things to come I naturally had a reaction.

You see, like most of you, I’ve been reading Lou’s and everyone else’s “predictions” for years and what I don’t end up reading is anyone who dares to disagree with the fortunetellers or voices opinions in anyway but “way to go Lou” or “I completely agree”.  Well not here my friends.  Let me run down the first 5 of the 10 and give you some balance to the first set of 2010 forecasts by ERE Clairvoyants:

1. Lou: Job Boards will soon be archaic:

Phil: They have been for years but they are not going away anytime soon: From my experience both inside Corporate Recruiting and outside selling against them, People have a love/hate relationship with traditional job boards.  Recruiting departments hate them and hiring managers love them.  Until Recruiting departments can come up with a viable reason to avoid posting jobs on them, they will continue to dominate spending in most departments.  Lou’s assertion that they “target C+ type talent” is absurd.  Everyone knows that a C to me may be a B to you and visa versa.  Classifying talent generically into A, B and C is one of the major problems of traditional Recruiting leadership.  Lou, do us a favor and stop using archaic classifications.

2. Lou: The talent hub and spoke model will dominate active candidate sourcing:

Phil: Only if the industry can restrain itself from complexity: I have first hand experience with some early “Talent Hub” vendors who are now out of business.  The reason they failed is this; they complicated it so much (Build Big Fast) that it served neither the company or the candidate.  It’s one thing to connect people via a talent hub who are banking sales people.  It becomes too complicated (and the value is lost) when you connect THAT hub to another hub, say, people who like to garden or people who own classic cars.  If the industry can keep it simple and not make it like a gigantic game of Tinker Toys (picture below for those of you born after 1970) then it may work.  I’m not optimistic we can keep it simple these days.

3. Lou: Sourcing spokes will come and go:

Phil: Really?  That’s a prediction?: Predicting the coming and going of ideas in recruiting is like predicting the rise and set of the sun.  No comment on this one.

4. Lou: Applicant tracking systems will eventually react and adapt to the new model:

Phil: ATS systems will still hold no place in sourcing:  For the last decade, ATS systems have struggled to reconcile the process management and compliance tracking they were intended to provide and the push toward (and investment in) sourcing solutions.  Maybe we should finally realize that a system architected for compliance and process management will never be as effective for sourcing as a system architected from the Sourcing Desk.

5. Lou: Companies will be unprepared for the spike in turnover:

Phil: Completely agree:  But would add that the “spike” will be much longer than 6 months.  We will hit 11% unemployment in Jan 2010, by January 2011 we will be mired in the greatest job movement in history as underemployed seek new employment and the unemployed are filling roles.  People, process and systems will be unprepeared for this historical mobilization and those companies who are caught unprepared will suffer tremendously.

Ok, so there are the first 5 of Lou’s 10 predictions for 2010.  It’s hot and sticky here in Charlotte, NC – we’ll see what NEW predictions come out when it’s cold.